Dear friends,
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is already proving to be an event of profound importance for global catastrophic risk. As detailed in the GCRI Statement on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, the war’s implications for nuclear war risk are especially strong, but it also has implications for other risks including climate change, pandemics, and artificial intelligence. These changes are coming from the war itself and from the accompanying shifts in global politics. We at GCRI hope that the war can reach a prompt and peaceful conclusion and we are doing what we can to help reduce the various risks that it poses.
Sincerely,
Seth Baum
Executive Director
Russia-Ukraine and Nuclear War Risk
GCRI Executive Director Seth D. Baum wrote an article for BBC Future titled How to evaluate the risk of nuclear war. In the article, Baum discusses the quantitative analysis of nuclear war risk in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. His article was quoted in the Vox article titled Thinking through the unthinkable.
GCRI Executive Director Seth D. Baum recently wrote an article on the Effective Altruism Forum presenting analysis of the Russian invasion of Ukraine written for a global catastrophic risk audience. His article, Early reflections and resources on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, can be found online.
GCRI Comment to the Office of Science and Technology Policy
On 4 March 2022, GCRI responded to a Request for Information (RFI) from the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) on potential revisions to the national strategic plan related to AI R&D. GCRI’s OSTP submission can be found online.
Climate Change, Uncertainty, and Global Catastrophic Risk
Is climate change a global catastrophic risk? This paper, published in the journal Futures, addresses the question by examining the definition of global catastrophic risk and by comparing climate change to another severe global risk, nuclear winter. The paper concludes that yes, climate change is a global catastrophic risk, and potentially a significant one.
