December 2012 Newsletter

by | 10 December 2012

Recently, GCRI released its monthly email newsletter. The main updates are reprinted in the blog below.  To sign up for our newsletter, click here.

GCRI Releases Organization Directory Resource

As part of GCRI’s efforts to map the talent available for global catastrophic risk, we have compiled a directory of GCR organizations. The directory lists 117 organizations, with descriptive annotations for each. Further details are available here. This is one of several resources GCRI is developing in support of the global catastrophic risk community, as is the blogs & newsfeeds resource we released last month.

First Two GCRI Academic Publications, Plus One in Scientific American

GCRI is proud to announce its first two academic publications, plus a major popular publication.

1) Grant Wilson’s paper Minimizing global catastrophic and existential risks from emerging technologies through international law has been accepted at the Virginia Environmental Law Journal. The paper reviews existing international treaties and possible new ones in terms of their potential to reduce risk from emerging technologies like bioengineering, nanotechnology, and artificial intelligence.

2) Seth Baum’s paper Teaching astrobiology in a sustainability course has been accepted for publication in the Journal of Sustainability Education. The paper discusses how astrobiology (the study of life in the universe) can broaden undergraduate students’ perspectives on sustainability, including the crucial role that global catastrophic risk plays in the outcomes of Earth-originating civilization.

3) Seth Baum also published Hurricane Sandy Hints at the Perils of Global Catastrophe at Scientific American Blogs. The article, which was reprinted in Yahoo News and The Huffington Post, compares Sandy’s broad geographic devastation to the possibility of global damages.

Indiegogo Campaign: International Treaties For Emerging Technologies

Grant Wilson and Seth Baum are raising funds on Indiegogo for research on using international treaties to reduce the risk of global catastrophe from emerging technologies. The project, Preventing Technological Disaster Through International Treaties, will follow up on Grant’s recent paper Minimizing global catastrophic and existential risks from emerging technologies through international law. For details please see the Indiegogo page. We encourage everyone to make at least a small donation to the Indiegogo campaign in addition to donating directly to GCRI. Even just visiting the Indiegogo page and sharing the link helps get our project featured more prominently on the Indiegogo website.

November Talk: Katherine Thompson On Psychology Of Uncertainty

For GCRI’s first public lecture, we had the privilege of welcoming Katherine Thompson of the Columbia University Psychology Department and Center for Research on Environmental Decisions. The lecture was held online using Skype with attendees from across the United States plus one in Beijing. Details of the lecture are on the GCRI blog, including a discussion of how construal level theory can help with GCRI’s mission of mobilizing people to work on GCR.

Nuclear War Group Discusses Nuclear Winter (And More)

GCRI plans discussion groups on the breadth of our research topics of interest. The nuclear war group has been serving as trial run, helping us learn how to make these discussions succeed. In the group’s third meeting, it took on nuclear winter, considering how severe it would be, how it affects current strategy, and what further research would be useful. The group also had a fourth meeting last week. The summary is not yet available, but as a sneak preview, we discussed (among other things) what the intelligence community calls mirror imaging, in which analysts mistakenly assume that others would act however the analyst would act in that circumstance, instead of factoring in cultural differences. Understanding other peoples’ perspectives is central to GCRI’s mission of mobilizing them for GCR.

GCR Dinner(s) at SRA/San Francisco

If you are in San Francisco this week (Dec 10-13), please consider joining us for dinner. Some of us are in town for the Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting and hosting dinners for people interested in global catastrophic risk. Details are still being finalized but dinners will be Tuesday and/or Wednesday (probably both) in the Embarcadero area. To join please contact Seth Baum, seth [at] gcrinstitute.org.

GCRI Welcomes Research Assistant Kaitlin Butler

November brought GCRI one new affiliate, Research Assistant Kaitlin Butler. Kaitlin is a Research Assistant for the Consortium for Climate Risks in the Urban Northeast. Kaitlin is working on the China-US GCR perceptions study with Jianhua Xu, Tony Barrett, and Seth Baum, as well as a project on climate change policy.

“Meet The Team Tuesdays” Interviews

Our weekly interview series continues. For November, we have Jianhua XuArden Rowell,Tony Barrett, and Grant Wilson.

Author

Recent Publications

Climate Change, Uncertainty, and Global Catastrophic Risk

Climate Change, Uncertainty, and Global Catastrophic Risk

Is climate change a global catastrophic risk? This paper, published in the journal Futures, addresses the question by examining the definition of global catastrophic risk and by comparing climate change to another severe global risk, nuclear winter. The paper concludes that yes, climate change is a global catastrophic risk, and potentially a significant one.

Assessing the Risk of Takeover Catastrophe from Large Language Models

Assessing the Risk of Takeover Catastrophe from Large Language Models

For over 50 years, experts have worried about the risk of AI taking over the world and killing everyone. The concern had always been about hypothetical future AI systems—until recent LLMs emerged. This paper, published in the journal Risk Analysis, assesses how close LLMs are to having the capabilities needed to cause takeover catastrophe.

On the Intrinsic Value of Diversity

On the Intrinsic Value of Diversity

Diversity is a major ethics concept, but it is remarkably understudied. This paper, published in the journal Inquiry, presents a foundational study of the ethics of diversity. It adapts ideas about biodiversity and sociodiversity to the overall category of diversity. It also presents three new thought experiments, with implications for AI ethics.

Climate Change, Uncertainty, and Global Catastrophic Risk

Climate Change, Uncertainty, and Global Catastrophic Risk

Is climate change a global catastrophic risk? This paper, published in the journal Futures, addresses the question by examining the definition of global catastrophic risk and by comparing climate change to another severe global risk, nuclear winter. The paper concludes that yes, climate change is a global catastrophic risk, and potentially a significant one.

Assessing the Risk of Takeover Catastrophe from Large Language Models

Assessing the Risk of Takeover Catastrophe from Large Language Models

For over 50 years, experts have worried about the risk of AI taking over the world and killing everyone. The concern had always been about hypothetical future AI systems—until recent LLMs emerged. This paper, published in the journal Risk Analysis, assesses how close LLMs are to having the capabilities needed to cause takeover catastrophe.

On the Intrinsic Value of Diversity

On the Intrinsic Value of Diversity

Diversity is a major ethics concept, but it is remarkably understudied. This paper, published in the journal Inquiry, presents a foundational study of the ethics of diversity. It adapts ideas about biodiversity and sociodiversity to the overall category of diversity. It also presents three new thought experiments, with implications for AI ethics.