April 2013 Newsletter

by | 8 April 2013

Dear friends,

Ongoing headline news discusses possible global catastrophes. In February, it was a close call with an asteroid. Now, there’s the threat of nuclear war with North Korea. What I’m most worried about is the H7N9 flu virus – see Laurie Garrett’s excellent article Is This a Pandemic Being Born? It can be a lot to keep track of, and so this month GCRI is announcing a new GCR news summary initiative.

We’re also announcing a new research paper focusing on the survivors of global catastrophe. This is a dark, grim subject, but a tremendously important one. Most of the research attention thus far has (quite understandably) focused on preventing global catastrophes. With this paper we seek to help establish a new line of inquiry on global catastrophe survivors in order to help ensure that survivors succeed in adapting to post-catastrophe conditions and recovering civilization.

As always, thank you for your interest in our work. We welcome any comments, questions, and criticisms you may have. Please also consider supporting our work by getting involved or making a donation.

Sincerely,

Seth Baum, Executive Director

GCRI Launches News Summary Initiative

To help you keep track of all news related to global catastrophic risk, GCRI is launching a GCR news summary initiative in partnership with Robert de Neufville. We are compiling GCR news and posting monthly summaries on our blog. We’re using ‘news’ in the broadest sense of the word, to include anything new: current events, commentaries, announcements, etc, related to any GCR topics, in particular GCRI’s topics of research interest. We also invite you to help us compile news items. If you know of something that may be worth including in the next news summary, please post it in the comment thread of the current summary, or send it via email to Grant Wilson (grant [at] gcrinstitute.org).

For the first edition, please see GCR News Summary March 2013.

New Paper On Global Catastrophe Adaptation And Recovery

This paper develops the concepts of adaptation to and recovery from global catastrophe. If global catastrophe occurs, then any survivors must adapt to post-catastrophe conditions, or else they will die out. If adaptation succeeds, the survivors may then be able to recover civilization. This paper discusses the importance of global catastrophe adaptation and recovery and analyzes the environmental and social stressors that survivors may face. The analysis, though tentative, points to steps that can be taken now, before catastrophe, to aid survivors’ adaptation and recovery. See discussion on the GCRI blog.

Timothy M. Maher, Jr. and Seth D. Baum, 2013. Adaptation to and recovery from global catastrophe. Sustainability, vol. 5, no. 4 (April), pages 1461-1479.

Join GCRI At The Society For Risk Analysis 2013 Annual Meeting

As announced last month, GCRI is organizing global catastrophic risk sessions at the SRA 2013 Annual Meeting (8-11 December, Baltimore). If you have something to present on any topic related to global catastrophic risk, we want to hear from you. Please send a short (1-5 sentence) speaker bio and presentation description to Seth Baum (seth [at] gcrinstitute.org). For information about previous GCRI SRA sessions, please click here.

Author

Recent Publications

Climate Change, Uncertainty, and Global Catastrophic Risk

Climate Change, Uncertainty, and Global Catastrophic Risk

Is climate change a global catastrophic risk? This paper, published in the journal Futures, addresses the question by examining the definition of global catastrophic risk and by comparing climate change to another severe global risk, nuclear winter. The paper concludes that yes, climate change is a global catastrophic risk, and potentially a significant one.

Assessing the Risk of Takeover Catastrophe from Large Language Models

Assessing the Risk of Takeover Catastrophe from Large Language Models

For over 50 years, experts have worried about the risk of AI taking over the world and killing everyone. The concern had always been about hypothetical future AI systems—until recent LLMs emerged. This paper, published in the journal Risk Analysis, assesses how close LLMs are to having the capabilities needed to cause takeover catastrophe.

On the Intrinsic Value of Diversity

On the Intrinsic Value of Diversity

Diversity is a major ethics concept, but it is remarkably understudied. This paper, published in the journal Inquiry, presents a foundational study of the ethics of diversity. It adapts ideas about biodiversity and sociodiversity to the overall category of diversity. It also presents three new thought experiments, with implications for AI ethics.

Climate Change, Uncertainty, and Global Catastrophic Risk

Climate Change, Uncertainty, and Global Catastrophic Risk

Is climate change a global catastrophic risk? This paper, published in the journal Futures, addresses the question by examining the definition of global catastrophic risk and by comparing climate change to another severe global risk, nuclear winter. The paper concludes that yes, climate change is a global catastrophic risk, and potentially a significant one.

Assessing the Risk of Takeover Catastrophe from Large Language Models

Assessing the Risk of Takeover Catastrophe from Large Language Models

For over 50 years, experts have worried about the risk of AI taking over the world and killing everyone. The concern had always been about hypothetical future AI systems—until recent LLMs emerged. This paper, published in the journal Risk Analysis, assesses how close LLMs are to having the capabilities needed to cause takeover catastrophe.

On the Intrinsic Value of Diversity

On the Intrinsic Value of Diversity

Diversity is a major ethics concept, but it is remarkably understudied. This paper, published in the journal Inquiry, presents a foundational study of the ethics of diversity. It adapts ideas about biodiversity and sociodiversity to the overall category of diversity. It also presents three new thought experiments, with implications for AI ethics.