June 2013 Newsletter

by | 5 June 2013

Dear friends,

We took the opportunity over the past month to jumpstart our online lectures, which previously hadn’t gotten the attention they deserve. We’re now announcing six new lectures over the next three months, with more in the works. It’s a wonderful mix of topics, ranging from chemical pollution to pandemics to artificial intelligence, and including original natural and social science, legal and policy analysis, and more. This breadth is what makes global catastrophic risk so challenging and exciting. We hope you’ll join us for some of the lectures.

Online lectures are an opportunity for global catastrophic risk experts to share their work and get feedback from GCRI affiliates and the broader community (including you!). We hold the lectures online to enable easy participation from people around the world. As long as everyone has a good internet connection, the only hard part is finding a time suitable for participants from so many time zones. (GCRI’s time zones resource has been helpful here.) We’re also able to schedule lectures on short notice, in contrast with many conferences, which require submission many months in advance. The net result is top-quality lectures at much better monetary cost, ease of access, and flexibility relative to traditional in-person events, not to mention the large reduction in fossil fuel usage.

For now, our online lectures remain fairly small, with around ten attendees. This makes for a more intimate interaction, which is great for networking. It also gives us the chance to gain experience and resolve bugs as we build towards bigger productions. Online lectures do present some challenges. I always have my fingers crossed that the audio remains clear enough for everyone to hear the speaker! So far it has gone well. One recent insight was to host presentations in Prezi instead of the usual PowerPoint because Prezi works great for live sharing online. Thanks go to our recent speaker Aladdin Diakun for this idea.

We are actively scheduling more lectures. If you have work you’d like to share, please let us know. Meanwhile, you are invited to attend any of our upcoming lectures. RSVP is required via email to me (seth@gcrinstitute.org). Details are below and will be updated regularly at GCRI’s online lectures page.

As always, thank you for your interest in our work, and we welcome any comments, questions, and criticisms you may have.

Sincerely,
Seth Baum, Executive Director

May GCR News Summary

Robert de Neufville presents our third monthly news summary. This month covers climate change, including the milestone of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration reaching 400 parts per million; honey bee colony collapse disorder; nuclear disarmament; and several disease outbreaks, including H7N9, which has fortunately slowed down considerably in recent weeks.

For the full summary, please see GCR News Summary May 2013.

As always, if you know of something that may be worth including in the next news summary, please post it in the comment thread of the current summary, or send it via email to Grant Wilson (grant@gcrinstitute.org).

Baum To Moderate Megadisasters Panel At AGU Science Policy Conference

GCRI Executive Director Seth Baum has been invited to moderate a panel discussion Potential for Megadisasters at the 2013 American Geophysical Union Science Policy Conference, which will take place in Washington, DC. Panelists will include Lindley Johnson, Executive of the NASA Near Earth Objects Observations Program; Lucile Jones, Science Advisor for Risk Reduction of the U.S. Geological Survey’s SAFRR Project (Science Application for Risk Reduction); Lawrence Zanetti, Physicist at the John Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab; and Eddie Bernard, Affiliate Professor at the University of Washington.

Past Online Lecture

On 7 May, Aladdin Diakun of the Balsillie School of International Affairs presented on geoengineering and intellectual property. The talk was titled ‘Towards the Effective Governance of Geoengineering: What Role for Intellectual Property?’ A full summary is available here.

Upcoming Online Lectures

To be held via Skype or equivalent. RSVP required via email to Seth Baum (seth@gcrinstitute.org). For assistance with time zones, please see GCRI’s time zones resource.

Tuesday 11 June 2013, 17:00 GMT (13:00 New York):
Topic: International Pandemics Governance
Speaker: Catherine Rhodes, Research Fellow, Institute for Science, Ethics and Innovation, University of Manchester
Title: Sovereign Wrongs: Ethics in the Governance of Pathogenic Genetic Resources
Abstract: See the Pre-Lecture Announcement

Wednesday 19 June 2013, 18:00 GMT (14:00 New York):
Topic: Law For Emerging Weapons Technologies
Speaker: Eric Talbot Jensen, Associate Professor of Law, Brigham Young University
Title: The Future Of The Law Of Armed Conflict: Ostriches, Butterflies, And Nanobots
Abstract: See the Pre-Lecture Announcement

25-26 June 2013 0:00 GMT (Wed. 9:00AM JST/Tokyo; Tues. 20:00 New York):
Topic: Environmental Change
Speaker: Itsuki Handoh, Associate Professor, Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, Kyoto
Title: Phosphorus and Chemical Pollution as Global Catastrophic Risks
Abstract: See the Pre-Lecture Announcement

July (exact date TBD):
Topic: Governance, Psychology, & Emerging Technologies
Speaker: Tim Maher, GCRI Research Assistant
Title: Ambient Intelligence: Implications for Global Environmental Change and Totalitarianism Risk
Note: We are recruiting a discussant for this talk. Let us know if you are interested or have other suggestions.

Thursday 25 July 2013 17:00 GMT (13:00 New York):
Topic: Emerging Technologies Development
Speaker: Miles Brundage, PhD student, Human and Social Dimensions of Science and Technology, Arizona State University
Title: A Social Science Perspective on Global Catastrophic Risk Debates: The Case of Artificial General Intelligence
Abstract: See the Pre-Lecture Announcement

August (exact date TBD):
Topic: Ethics
Speaker: Nick Beckstead, Post-Doctoral Fellow, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University
Title (Tentative): On The Overwhelming Importance Of Shaping The Far Future

Author

Recent Publications

Climate Change, Uncertainty, and Global Catastrophic Risk

Climate Change, Uncertainty, and Global Catastrophic Risk

Is climate change a global catastrophic risk? This paper, published in the journal Futures, addresses the question by examining the definition of global catastrophic risk and by comparing climate change to another severe global risk, nuclear winter. The paper concludes that yes, climate change is a global catastrophic risk, and potentially a significant one.

Assessing the Risk of Takeover Catastrophe from Large Language Models

Assessing the Risk of Takeover Catastrophe from Large Language Models

For over 50 years, experts have worried about the risk of AI taking over the world and killing everyone. The concern had always been about hypothetical future AI systems—until recent LLMs emerged. This paper, published in the journal Risk Analysis, assesses how close LLMs are to having the capabilities needed to cause takeover catastrophe.

On the Intrinsic Value of Diversity

On the Intrinsic Value of Diversity

Diversity is a major ethics concept, but it is remarkably understudied. This paper, published in the journal Inquiry, presents a foundational study of the ethics of diversity. It adapts ideas about biodiversity and sociodiversity to the overall category of diversity. It also presents three new thought experiments, with implications for AI ethics.

Climate Change, Uncertainty, and Global Catastrophic Risk

Climate Change, Uncertainty, and Global Catastrophic Risk

Is climate change a global catastrophic risk? This paper, published in the journal Futures, addresses the question by examining the definition of global catastrophic risk and by comparing climate change to another severe global risk, nuclear winter. The paper concludes that yes, climate change is a global catastrophic risk, and potentially a significant one.

Assessing the Risk of Takeover Catastrophe from Large Language Models

Assessing the Risk of Takeover Catastrophe from Large Language Models

For over 50 years, experts have worried about the risk of AI taking over the world and killing everyone. The concern had always been about hypothetical future AI systems—until recent LLMs emerged. This paper, published in the journal Risk Analysis, assesses how close LLMs are to having the capabilities needed to cause takeover catastrophe.

On the Intrinsic Value of Diversity

On the Intrinsic Value of Diversity

Diversity is a major ethics concept, but it is remarkably understudied. This paper, published in the journal Inquiry, presents a foundational study of the ethics of diversity. It adapts ideas about biodiversity and sociodiversity to the overall category of diversity. It also presents three new thought experiments, with implications for AI ethics.