January Newsletter: Insurrection & AGI Survey

by | 28 January 2021

Dear friends,

January 6, 2021 was a dark day in the US. The violent insurrection at the US Capitol was terrible in its own right, but, as we discuss on the GCRI blog, it also had several links to global catastrophic risk, including visions of global genocide against non-whites and systems of disinformation that also undermine the governance of climate change and of the COVID-19 pandemic.

GCRI is nonpartisan, and we welcome constructive contributions from people of all political views. We do not, however, welcome those who seek to cause harm or to cloud the debate. We believe steps should be taken to counter violent extremism, misinformation, and threats to democracy. We outline some of these steps on our blog. If we as a society take the threat of violent extremism seriously, we can work together to build a better future.

In happier news, I am delighted to announce the publication of the 2020 Survey of Artificial General Intelligence Projects for Ethics, Risk, and Policy. This updates and expands on the AGI survey we published in 2017.

The 2020 survey is significantly more comprehensive. Whereas the 2017 survey identified 45 AGI R&D projects spread across 30 countries, the 2020 survey finds that, in 2020, there were 72 AGI R&D projects spread across 37 countries. The 2020 survey also evaluates how AGI R&D projects have changed since 2017.

The 2020 survey was led by McKenna Fitzgerald and co-authored by Aaron Boddy and myself.

Sincerely,
Seth Baum
Executive Director

GCRI Receives New Grant

GCRI has received a new grant of $209,000 for general support of GCRI operations from Jaan Tallinn via the Survival and Flourishing Fund. We are grateful for this generous donation and look forward to using it to advance our mission of developing the best ways to confront humanity’s gravest threats.

Author

Recent Publications

Climate Change, Uncertainty, and Global Catastrophic Risk

Climate Change, Uncertainty, and Global Catastrophic Risk

Is climate change a global catastrophic risk? This paper, published in the journal Futures, addresses the question by examining the definition of global catastrophic risk and by comparing climate change to another severe global risk, nuclear winter. The paper concludes that yes, climate change is a global catastrophic risk, and potentially a significant one.

Assessing the Risk of Takeover Catastrophe from Large Language Models

Assessing the Risk of Takeover Catastrophe from Large Language Models

For over 50 years, experts have worried about the risk of AI taking over the world and killing everyone. The concern had always been about hypothetical future AI systems—until recent LLMs emerged. This paper, published in the journal Risk Analysis, assesses how close LLMs are to having the capabilities needed to cause takeover catastrophe.

On the Intrinsic Value of Diversity

On the Intrinsic Value of Diversity

Diversity is a major ethics concept, but it is remarkably understudied. This paper, published in the journal Inquiry, presents a foundational study of the ethics of diversity. It adapts ideas about biodiversity and sociodiversity to the overall category of diversity. It also presents three new thought experiments, with implications for AI ethics.

Climate Change, Uncertainty, and Global Catastrophic Risk

Climate Change, Uncertainty, and Global Catastrophic Risk

Is climate change a global catastrophic risk? This paper, published in the journal Futures, addresses the question by examining the definition of global catastrophic risk and by comparing climate change to another severe global risk, nuclear winter. The paper concludes that yes, climate change is a global catastrophic risk, and potentially a significant one.

Assessing the Risk of Takeover Catastrophe from Large Language Models

Assessing the Risk of Takeover Catastrophe from Large Language Models

For over 50 years, experts have worried about the risk of AI taking over the world and killing everyone. The concern had always been about hypothetical future AI systems—until recent LLMs emerged. This paper, published in the journal Risk Analysis, assesses how close LLMs are to having the capabilities needed to cause takeover catastrophe.

On the Intrinsic Value of Diversity

On the Intrinsic Value of Diversity

Diversity is a major ethics concept, but it is remarkably understudied. This paper, published in the journal Inquiry, presents a foundational study of the ethics of diversity. It adapts ideas about biodiversity and sociodiversity to the overall category of diversity. It also presents three new thought experiments, with implications for AI ethics.