May Newsletter: Pandemic and New Hire

by | 8 May 2020

Dear friends,

We are amidst the most severe global event in decades. The COVID-19 pandemic is unfortunately showing all too clearly how certain threats can devastate human society and individual lives around the world. We at GCRI offer our condolences to those who have lost loved ones and stand with those working to pull through this tragic ordeal. We are not pandemics experts, but we are pursuing opportunities to apply our background in catastrophic risk to the ongoing pandemic response. For more on our perspective on the pandemic, including how it rates as a global catastrophe and what lessons can be learned from it, please see the GCRI Statement on the COVID-19 Pandemic.

In happier news, I am delighted to welcome McKenna Fitzgerald to the GCRI team. She will serve as GCRI’s Project Manager and Research Assistant. Ms. Fitzgerald previously worked as Director of Academic Affairs at the Consulate General of Israel in San Francisco, where she facilitated partnerships between government, academia, and industry on AI and related computer technologies. She will focus on GCRI’s ongoing AI projects and will also contribute to our broader portfolio of work. More on Ms. Fitzgerald can be found here.

Sincerely,
Seth Baum, Executive Director

Popular Media

GCRI Special Advisor for Government Affairs Jared Brown discussed the US’ failure to prepare to use the tools provided by Defense Production Act to address catastrophes like the current pandemic in commentary for War on the Rocks. Before joining GCRI, Brown worked for the Congressional Research Service and the Department of Transportation, and he is one of the original authors of the Congressional Research Service’s primary report on the Defense Production Act.

GCRI Executive Director Seth Baum was interviewed for a Nature news feature on the impact of a small nuclear war. Baum told Nature that it is important to understand the possible environmental consequences of nuclear conflict in order to assess the risk and make good decisions. Dr. Baum was also interviewed for a Washington Post story on the how SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is affecting society.

GCRI Director of Communications Robert de Neufville was interviewed about forecasting for the FLI Podcast. He talked with the Future of Life Institute’s Lucas Perry about the challenges of forecasting, what “superforecasters” do, how forecasting relates to catastrophic risk, and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Author

Recent Publications

Climate Change, Uncertainty, and Global Catastrophic Risk

Climate Change, Uncertainty, and Global Catastrophic Risk

Is climate change a global catastrophic risk? This paper, published in the journal Futures, addresses the question by examining the definition of global catastrophic risk and by comparing climate change to another severe global risk, nuclear winter. The paper concludes that yes, climate change is a global catastrophic risk, and potentially a significant one.

Assessing the Risk of Takeover Catastrophe from Large Language Models

Assessing the Risk of Takeover Catastrophe from Large Language Models

For over 50 years, experts have worried about the risk of AI taking over the world and killing everyone. The concern had always been about hypothetical future AI systems—until recent LLMs emerged. This paper, published in the journal Risk Analysis, assesses how close LLMs are to having the capabilities needed to cause takeover catastrophe.

On the Intrinsic Value of Diversity

On the Intrinsic Value of Diversity

Diversity is a major ethics concept, but it is remarkably understudied. This paper, published in the journal Inquiry, presents a foundational study of the ethics of diversity. It adapts ideas about biodiversity and sociodiversity to the overall category of diversity. It also presents three new thought experiments, with implications for AI ethics.

Climate Change, Uncertainty, and Global Catastrophic Risk

Climate Change, Uncertainty, and Global Catastrophic Risk

Is climate change a global catastrophic risk? This paper, published in the journal Futures, addresses the question by examining the definition of global catastrophic risk and by comparing climate change to another severe global risk, nuclear winter. The paper concludes that yes, climate change is a global catastrophic risk, and potentially a significant one.

Assessing the Risk of Takeover Catastrophe from Large Language Models

Assessing the Risk of Takeover Catastrophe from Large Language Models

For over 50 years, experts have worried about the risk of AI taking over the world and killing everyone. The concern had always been about hypothetical future AI systems—until recent LLMs emerged. This paper, published in the journal Risk Analysis, assesses how close LLMs are to having the capabilities needed to cause takeover catastrophe.

On the Intrinsic Value of Diversity

On the Intrinsic Value of Diversity

Diversity is a major ethics concept, but it is remarkably understudied. This paper, published in the journal Inquiry, presents a foundational study of the ethics of diversity. It adapts ideas about biodiversity and sociodiversity to the overall category of diversity. It also presents three new thought experiments, with implications for AI ethics.